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Beat the NFL bookmakers

Take a break. The canine days of summer have come and gone.

The thermometers may not agree, but sports bettors should know that the best action of the summer is fast approaching.

Punters usually get tired of the monotony of the Major League Baseball regular season at the end of July. Then, like a fresh sea breeze, the NFL blesses bored bettors with a breath of fresh air.

NFL training camps opened for the season on July 27. Over the next two weeks, teams begin a grueling schedule of curfews, diets, and two days to get in shape for the upcoming season. In the following month, all 32 NFL teams will work to make the playoffs.

The NFL begins its preseason this week. This time of year is without a doubt the best kept secret in sports betting.

Most NFL fans know that very little can be learned from preseason games. The primary purpose of scrimmage-style contests is for coaches to conduct evaluations of the starting lineup. Last year’s starters are only on the field for a few snaps, mainly to avoid getting rusty for the upcoming season. While they see their only time on the bench of the season, reserve players and rookies get most of the snaps, hoping their performance will earn them a spot on the roster.

For the first (and only) time in the NFL season, the linemakers have no advantage. They are creating lines blindly, forced to set the spread as if the games were regular season contests.

The reason they are in this situation is simple. No consideration can be made on their part as to how reserve players and rookies play. How can bookies create an accurate line when players who haven’t seen play are taking the snaps?

Example. When the St. Louis Rams play the Kansas City Chiefs on August 23, the spread and over/under will be set assuming the KC defense (one of the five WORST in 2003) is lining up for every play against the tall St.Louis flights. aerial attack, which ranked third in 2003.

The spread of this contest could favor St. Louis (for this example, we’ll say yes). The Rams’ three-headed offensive juggernaut (quarterback Marc Bulger, wide receivers Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt) probably won’t play past halftime. Plus, KC’s one-man offensive machine, running back Priest Holmes, should see more bench than turf. These two events make the game completely open. Your guess on the outcome is only as good as the bookmakers’ guess.

The second half should see the field full of untested players. Who knows where the game will go from there? Will it be a low score contest or a barn? No one can be totally sure. This is great news for punters and bad news for bookmakers.

“The NFL preseason is easily the most unpredictable time for overseas sportsbooks,” said Anthony Wayne, director of marketing for EWINNER.com. “Very often the field is filled with players who have similar abilities. Without great playmakers on the field, how are the linemakers supposed to know who is going to be the favourite?”

Below are several pre-season contests that could prove very beneficial to the sports bettor. Strike while the iron is hot. (All distribution stats courtesy of Gold Sheet):

New York Giants at Carolina Panthers, 8/19, 8 pm on FOX: New York finished a lousy 4-12 last year and couldn’t close the gap in its last eight games. However, they have recharged by acquiring quarterback Kurt Warner as a mentor. rookie quarterback Eli Manning, and have a new coach, former Jaguars leader Tom Coughlin. Coughlin is a safe preseason bet, with an exhibition record of 16-8-1 against the spread.

With the exception of its offensive line, Carolina has kept most of the lineup that won the NFC championship last season. The Panthers have covered the spread in their last five preseason contests, but four of them were underdogs. During the 2003 regular season, they went 3-9 when they were favorites.

Bet on: Coughlin and his G-men, especially if Carolina is the favorite.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Baltimore Ravens, 8/12, 8 pm on ESPN: After an offseason of drastic changes, Atlanta has nothing to do but improve after finishing 2003 with the worst defense in the league. New coach Jim Mora, Jr. is going to put some youth in his booth, and with Michael Vick healthy, the 2004 Falcons should play more like the 2002 playoff team. During Vick’s first two seasons, Atlanta had brand 1-7 during exhibition season; last season, they were 0-4 (Vick broke his leg in Atlanta’s second preseason game).

Baltimore should be the beast of the AFC North this year, as well as a Super Bowl contender from week one. Quarterback Kyle Boller will have a year in the making, and his best running offense (thanks to marathon HB Jamal Lewis), will be supplemented by newly acquired wide receiver Kevin Johnson. This team should improve on last season’s 10-6 record, as their historic defense remains one of the fiercest in the NFL. Head coach Brian Billick is 11-4 in exhibition games against the spread, and is 6-2 as an underdog. Last year, the Ravens only went 1-3.

Bet on: Atlanta if Vick is healthy. Keep an eye on Baltimore, especially if they’re the underdogs.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles, 8/26, 8 pm on ESPN: Pittsburgh has a lot to recover from after last season; Mainly injuries. Their offense only prevailed on paper, thanks to injuries to the offensive line and a lack of carries from “The Bus” (Jerome Bettis), who averaged just 3.3 yards per touch. Head coach Bill Cowher has become a perennial preseason choke artist. His team was 0-4 going into the regular season last year, and they’ve struggled to cover the spread in past seasons as well (0-4 the past two seasons at home versus the spread).

Philadelphia is once again the favorite to go to the Super Bowl in the NFC. They addressed their two biggest needs in the offseason, adding wide receiver Terrell Owens and defensive end Jevon Kearse. The Eagles also have a tendency to choke. Unfortunately, the preseason is no different. In his career, trainer Andy Reid is 2-7 in exhibitions when he’s the favorite at home.

Bet on: Philadelphia. These games do not count. They are less likely to screw it up.

Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys, 8/30, 8 pm on ABC: The Titans cut salary (and talent) a lot in the offseason, but they’ll still find a way to contend for the playoffs thanks to Ironman QB Steve McNair. Tennessee’s 13 draft picks are going to see a ton of plays before the season starts as this team tries to freeze into one solid unit. A virtual lockout in exhibitions, the Titans covered all four games last preseason against the spread, and in the last four schedules they are 7-1 in road exhibitions. As an underdog, they’re more of a safe bet, a perfect 6-0.

Eddie George, a Titan until July, now runs for Dallas. George should have a big chip on his shoulder after being one of Tennessee’s salary-cap casualties. The 2004 Cowboys will also feature wide receiver Keyshawn Johnson and rookie QB/retired minor league baseball player Drew Henson. Henson will see plenty of snaps at exhibits to get rid of the diamond rust from him. Dallas went 10-6 last season, which is the best record of Bill Parcell’s first season as head coach. However, quality opponents (teams with winning records) went 4-2 against them last season, 3-1 against the spread.

Bet on: Titans. With their preseason record and Dallas’ tendency to lose to good teams, this should be a sure win.

For more information on NFL betting, plus links to your favorite online sportsbooks, check out Bet-Online-Sports.

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