As I enter my 14th Super Bowl pick as a professional handicapper (10-3 ATS in that span), I’m still amazed at how popular a gambling event it is, as both the national television exposure and huge publicity, even outside of Las Vegas, and abroad with all the exotic bets, drive punters out of the woodwork. With many of these exotic bets, it’s time to clean up the Las Vegas sportsbooks and foreign ones too, with more losers than winners from the betting public. I thought I’d touch on the game itself and some trends over the years to highlight, because we all know this is the biggest thing in sports every year, and there’s some money to be made in the NFL final game this season for sure.

When it comes to prop betting, there is ample opportunity to win some money. In the last 2 years, I’ve won all 6 prop bets on the last 2 Super Bowls, and those bets are the ones you CAN handicap and merit keeping. Running yards over and under specific players, number of field goals over and under, scoring in quarters and the like all have a proven track record of season stats and numbers to work with. Bets like heads or tails on the toss of the coin, and other exotic bets that I tend to stay away from, and I take the opportunity with real “meat and potatoes” type bets that provide chances, I suggest you do the same.

The Game: Here you have 2 teams and 2 managers that are rock solid football teams. This matchup should provide some fireworks in terms of excitement and scoring. Both teams have something to prove and both coaches have something to prove as well. Bill Cowher is one of the best coaches in the NFL, and the only thing missing from his eventual Canton Ohio Hall of Fame appearance is a Super Bowl victory to his credit. Of course, on the other side of the field is Mike Holmgren, who has gone to 2 Super Bowls as a head coach (won 2 rings as an assistant in SF), and is 1-1, but no coach has ever won a Super Bowl, head coaching 2 different teams, tried though, and Bill Parcells more recently comes to mind. A battle of veteran statesmen in terms of seniority and coaching experience, and both coaches have plenty of weapons on both sides of the ball to come up with game strategy. It should be a real game of chess on Sunday night.

The Steelers-Pittsburgh under Bill Cohwer has always been a tough-minded, physical game. The running game is their bread and butter and we all know it, but they used QB Rothlesburger as their primary weapon in both the Colts and Bronco wins, establishing early on that they weren’t going to try to ram them, but instead mix it up and keep an offensive attack open early on, which I felt really screwed up the game plan for both opponents. The Steelers also blitzed a lot on defense and improved their security on run support while playing man-to-man coverage, and while that can burn you out, neither Peyton Manning nor Jake Plummer could overcome the pressure, nor could their offensive lines. I’m looking for them to come out again, balance the attack and continue using a pressing defense.

Seahawks-Seattle is playing the “no respect” angle, but I assure you, Pittsburgh knows they’re good. Anytime you run the ball as well as Shawn Alexander does (1800+ yards) and you’re the league MVP, you’ve got everyone’s attention in the NFL, because a great running game means a great offensive line and it means keeping the defense honest to stop the run. The only thing you need to know is that Mike Holmgren likes to create mismatches in terms of his people and score points with those mismatches, and I think he’s a great coach as a coach. In terms of Seattle as a whole, QB Hasselbeck’s rise as a star stems from this, because they don’t have a world-class receiver on this team, just guys who make plays. They led the NFL in scoring, but were mediocre on defense, but as always, if you can’t turn them off, get over them, and that’s what Seattle has done to land them in this game.

In the last 10 Super Bowls, the favorite, in this case Pittsburgh, has gone 2-6-2 ATS against the starting line, and the last 4 Super Bowls have been decided by a field goal, many of them by Adam Venatari! Many of the last 39 Super Bowls have been one-sided games, but with recent levels of parity in the NFL, we’ve seen some good ones in the last 4-5 years. Both teams enter this game with impressive résumés from 2005, and the Steelers beating the #1 through #3 seeds on the road to getting here is more impressive, but do they have enough gas in the tank with a fourth straight game on the road while Seattle enjoyed dominance at home? Time will tell this Sunday. In terms of scoring, no one knows the game plan here except the players and coaches, but in the last 10 years, the overs have a slight advantage at 5-4-1 ATS. I think both teams will score, but in big games, experienced coaches emphasize defense, and the team that plays better on Sunday will win in my opinion, and both teams are capable.