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Ness’s Notes (January 14)

The NFL’s “rematch weekend” kicks off Saturday at 4:30 ET with Washington in Seattle and continues at 8:00 ET with New England in Denver. Sunday’s games are Pittsburgh at Indianapolis, followed by Carolina at Chicago.

All four Divisional Round games are rematches of the regular season. The same situation happened last year in this round and the SU winner of the regular season meeting was able to win the playoff rematch, every time. The only team not ‘covered’ in their win was the Steelers, who beat the Jets 20-17 in overtime as a nine-point favorite. Will it be deja vu again?

My free game for Saturday is varsity hoops and I’m taking USC over Washington State in a game that starts at 8:00 ET. BOTH of my NFL plays are available right now, my 20* divisional GOY and my latest LEGEND Play (14-2 in FB ’05!). BKB college fans, I’ll be following my 20* Pac-10 GOY winner in Washington (Thursday) with my 20* WCC Game of the Year on Saturday. I’ve got more CBB and NBA action coming up on Saturday, so be sure to check back after 9:00 ET.

washington in seattle

The story of this game is Washington, a No. 6 seed, enters this game with the longest current winning streak of any 2005 playoff team, having won SIX straight games on both SU and ATS. The number six is ​​also relevant to Seattle, as it is the exact number of playoff losses the Seahawks have suffered since the team’s last playoff win in 1984. Three of those playoff losses have come under Mike Holmgren, including two at home!

The Seahawks lost at home 20-17 to Miami in 1999, lost in overtime at Green Bay (33-27) in 2003 and last year, lost at home to St Louis by a score of 27-20. That loss was particularly hard to take, as Seattle lost all three games in 2004 to the Rams. Will this be the year the Seahawks finally win?

If not here, when? The Seahawks are one of two NFL teams to have gone 8-0 at home this year (6-2 ATS) and at 13-3, they have the best record in the NFC. However, Seattle played just five games this season against opponents with a .500 or better record, going 3-2 SU and 1-4 ATS.

The wins came bare against the Cowboys and Giants, plus against a Week 16 Indy team that played short of its starters and was reeling from the news of Dungy’s son’s death. Seattle lost to Jacksonville and Washington.

Washington has basically won six straight “do or die” games and one has to wonder if Joe Gibbs’ team will be “out of gas.” History is surely not on Washington’s side, as since 1990 (12-team format), only NINE of the 30 No. 6 seeds have won their wild-card games. Of those nine winners, NONE won in the divisional round (average loss was 33.7-13.6 PPG).

Is history about to change? He already has, as BOTH No. 6 seeds (Pittsburgh and Washington) won their first round games for the first time!

New England in Denver

Will Denver be Tom Brady’s “Waterloo”? As everyone knows, Brady has a perfect 10-0 record in his playoff career and New England’s 10-straight postseason wins is an NFL record. Denver joined Seattle by going 8-0 at home this year and will surely have confidence when the Broncos defeated the Pats in Week 6 here, 28-20. The game was not as close as the final score, as the Broncos led 21-3 at the half and 28-3 midway through the third quarter.

Brady’s playoff numbers are pretty impressive, as he owns a 61.9 percent completion percentage, has shot for an average of 215.2 YPG, and thrown for 14 TDs with just three interceptions. In seven of his 10 playoff games, Brady hasn’t thrown an interception, including his last four!

Denver’s quarterback Jake Plummer has made four previous playoff starts. He won his first win in 1998 when he led the Cardinals to a 20-7 victory over the Cowboys in Dallas. However, he has lost his last three, by scores of 41-21, 41-10 and 49-24. His last two playoff games were with the Broncos in losses in Indianapolis to the Colts.

The good news for both Plummer and Denver is that this game is at home. Plummer has thrown just TWO interceptions (227 attempts) in eight home games this year and Denver, having lost all three of its post-playoff games to Elway (all on the road!), finally gets a home game!

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