As a casual LEGO collector, I’m always on the lookout for games worth investing in. Obviously, the intention and goal of investing in LEGO is ultimately to make a profit. Therefore, it is crucial for the casual investor to maximize their investment dollars, which is typically only achieved after a game is retired or, in LEGO parlance, reaches End of Life (EOL). It’s no secret that the biggest factor in LEGO investment and set appreciation is EOL. In simpler terms, without EOL there is no profit.

For the LEGO investor, nothing is more eagerly anticipated and perhaps simultaneously feared than the three letters: EOL. For many casual LEGO investors, EOL comes too fast and for others too late. Many times EOL comes unexpectedly. One day apparently a game is there and the next it’s “Out of Stock” or “Call for Availability”. It’s also no good if you’re the LEGO investor on the outside looking in. There are many EOL theories and forecasters that can be found online with various claims from purported LEGO sources and inside information. Amidst all the speculation, one thing is for sure: Unless you work for The LEGO Group (TLG) and have actual knowledge of the product’s lifecycle, it’s all pure speculation and informed guesswork. Regardless of this fact, it is fun and potentially profitable to engage in this activity. Virtually all LEGO investors do. Historically, TLG uses an infinitely flexible and maddening two-year EOL rule in which many teams see their final production cycle. I like to summarize the phenomenon with three main categories or EOL scenarios that I call: exception, perception, and deception.

Missing out on a great LEGO set is a heartbreaking feeling that happens all too often for the casual LEGO investor. The two-year rule is nothing more than a vague LEGO barometer for when a set might reach the end of its useful life. As with almost all rules, there are exceptions, in this case, lots of exceptions! Trying to identify a bright line EOL rule is a real fool’s task. The following examples are just a few exceptions to the LEGO two-year EOL rule. The first and perhaps the most extreme exception to EOL would be the Holiday Train set (10173). It was only available for a sparse holiday season in 2006 and then poof. The original RRP in 2006 was $89 and today it is valued at over $300. Granted, this was created for a special occasion, but still, such a short shelf life is a hard pill to swallow if you had any hope of acquiring it. Another set of notable exceptions that many casual investors may have missed is the Trade Federation MTT (7662) which launched in late 2007 for $99 and ended in late 2008 with only a little over a year in production. The value of this set today is almost $400, which is a whopping 285% increase. Another high example of an established EOL exception to the two-year rule is the VW Beetle (10187) launched in 2008 and achieved EOL status in December 2009 for a total useful life of less than 20 months. The original retail price was $119 and today’s current value is trading at around $350, an increase of nearly 200%. Unfortunately, there are many more sets that fit into the exception category, such as Market Street (10190) and Grand Carousel (10188), to name just two. They both make me want to kick myself for failing! These exceptions to the EOL rule highlight the dangers and pitfalls of investing in LEGO, and any investor who snatched these exceptions to the two-year EOL rule was very lucky.

So we look at some exceptions to the two-year EOL guideline, now at most of the rule. It stands to reason that a rule should have a large number of examples to support it. In other words, for exceptions to exist there must be a collective perception of what is supposed to happen. There are numerous examples of the two-year EOL rule which, if observed, still allowed casual investors to make a tidy profit. One of my favorite games that falls into this category is The Eiffel Tower (10181). Released in late 2007 and ending production at the end of 2009, this set is a great example of an almost exact two year run. The original RRP for The Eiffel Tower was $199. The current value is now an impressively high $850, which translates to a not-so-bad 326% increase. Another good example of a great investment set with a two-year production life is Jabba’s Sail Barge (6210). This amazing set was released in 2006 with a modest RRP of $75. Today, this set is typically priced at over $400, which equates to a 445% increase in investment. Perhaps the holy grail of the LEGO modular world and the best example of the two-year production life cycle is found at 10182 Café Corner. Café Corner lasted two full years, from 2007 to 2009. The original jaw-dropping RRP of $139 has now skyrocketed to a staggering $1,136, with an increase in value of over 700%! Other notable sets that fall squarely within the two-year EOL sweet spot are the Taj Mahal (10189); the green shopkeeper (10185); The Millennium Falcon (10179); Vader’s TIE Advanced (10175) and much more. It’s hard to claim any surprises or garner much sympathy for missing out on any set that stuck around for at least two years. Two years represents the common perception of LEGO’s average production lifespan and is often the determining factor when faced with an investment buyout of different sets – choose the set that is further along in its production cycle and you’re generally safe. That is unless you fall victim to the LEGO hoax.

The LEGO hoax is nothing more than those sets that have outlived their welcome to the casual investor but simply refuse to die a natural death. That’s not to say that the general public agrees with that sentiment; in fact, they obviously don’t, or else these outfits wouldn’t be around years after their debut. A perfect example of EOL cheating is Medieval Market Village (10193). This set came out in 2008 and is still available today. The LEGO Shop at Home (S&H) currently lists this set as out of stock until August of this year. Does this mean you are finally getting close to EOL? The two-year EOL rule would dictate this result, but this set seems to have strong legs and is still very popular. It may still have some life left. The original RRP of $99 is still an exceptional deal. Current value is trading at around $92, which is a 6% decrease from RRP. Interestingly, the value of this set has increased by 6% over the last month. It looks like investors could start to make some modest gains in the next 6 months if it ends up reaching end of life this summer or fall. Another set that is still available long after the two-year EOL rule is the Fire Department (10197). This set was released in September 2009 and was thought to be a likely candidate for EOL Christmas 2011! To this day, it is still going strong and shows no sign of abating, even after the launch of the modular Town Hall in March. There has been a lot of speculation surrounding the modular issue and how many different active sets it can support at any given time. For several weeks this spring, most major retail outlets were out of stock for the Fire Brigade, including S@H and Amazon. This led to a small bubble in value that has since burst and is now back to almost the original RRP. Finally, one cannot ignore the biggest and most extreme example of the LEGO EOL hoax: The Death Star (10188). For many casual LEGO investors, it was this set that brought them out of their Dark Ages. So it’s kind of ironic that this set is still available four years later! In fact, it’s still a LEGO bestseller on Amazon, even with a massive RRP of $399. Unfortunately, the current value is “only” $383 and certainly doesn’t reflect the impressive firepower of the real, fully operational Death Star that it so beautifully emulates.

Many factors play a role in applying the LEGO two-year EOL guideline. Certainly popularity, earnings, theme, and price all help dictate the lifespan of a specific set and each of those factors could be discussed in great detail. For most casual LEGO investors, that’s not particularly practical or productive. For now, it’s best to keep an eye out for sets approaching the two-year mark and use your best LEGO judgment. As with any investment, there is a large element of luck involved. Jump in too soon and you can sit with a lot of big boxes in every room of your home. Wait too long and you’ll just wish you had lots of big boxes in every room of your home.