Statistically speaking, free agents who sign with a new team don’t produce impressive fantasy numbers in their debut season. Only a few have been in the top 10 at his position.

Some examples of those few are:

RB Darren Sproles: Last season Sproles left the San Diego Chargers and signed with the New Orleans Saints. Sproles was an immediate success, as he was often used in multiple offensive formations lining up at various positions, including flanker, slot, split wide, and of course, tailback. He achieved fantasy stud status in the PPR leagues with 86 receptions for 710 yards.

Another stud who made a big splash was Atlanta Falcons RB Michael Turner. In 2008, Turner rushed for 1,699 yards and had 17 TDs after he, too, left the Chargers to sign with Atlanta.

Wide receiver Antonio Bryant tackled the top ten fantasy stud scoring with his performance in 2008 after signing with Tampa Bay. Bryant finished the 2008 season with 83 receptions for 1,248 yards and 7 touchdowns averaging 15 yards per reception and in one game he had 9 receptions for 200 yards, a career high for Bryant. Antonio Bryant is currently a free agent.

As far as QBs go, the only stud to leave a team like the FA and succeed is Drew Brees. He has finished in the top 5 in five of the past six seasons and has completed at least 33 touchdown passes in each of the past four seasons, coming off a record-breaking season that included 5,476 passing yards and 46 touchdowns. Oh, and he won a Superbowl in 2009 when the Saints beat Peyton Manning’s Indianapolis Colts.

So, as the article headline prompts, will signing Peyton Manning with the FA make him a fantasy stud or a fantasy bust in his debut season with his new team, the Denver Broncos?… The answer is stallion.

The last full season Manning played was in 2010, where he had 4,700 yards for 33 touchdowns. Manning has been an elite, top-five fantasy quarterback 11 times in 13 seasons with the Indianapolis Colts (#6 ounce and #9 as a rookie).

This year he is dealing with two problems…a new team and recovering from multiple surgeries. Due to her neck injury and subsequent surgery, most experts say she is one step away from ending her career. I say that EVERY NFL player is one stroke away from ending their career, which makes that argument moot.

Throughout his career, Manning has only been sacked 231 times and played the entire 2010 season dealing with his injury and still produced stud numbers. Denver’s offensive line isn’t filled with professional bowlers, but they do have strength in their youth and continuity. From the left side with Ryan Clady to the right side with Orlando Franklin and everything in between, all five players started all 16 games last season and all return this season. Designed for zone blocking, which bolstered the teams running game last season, now with a passing QB, they’ll be tasked with doing more pass blocking, giving Manning time to do what he does best. . This balance of rushing and passing offense will bode well for the Broncos.

Another factor to consider is John Fox’s ability to train to the strengths of his players. He did this last year with Tim Tebow, using him at quarterback, a no-huddle offense and wildcat-type offensive schemes, and the Broncos made the playoffs for the first time in six years. Fox also enjoyed great success in 2003-2004 when he helped a young Jake Delhomme and the “Cardiac Cats” compete for the Lombardi Trophy. The Panthers only lost by six points to the New England Patriots in SuperBowl XXXVIII, and Delhomme was just shy of 4,000 yards with 29 TDs that year. Fox will make offensive schemes that suit Peyton.

Overall, Manning is poised to be one of the top five fantasy QBs this season. He’s surrounded by a great supporting cast in his coach, his receiving corps and his offensive line, which is arguably better than he had at Indy.

Wide receivers Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker and backups Andre Caldwell, Jason Hill will see most of the passes from Manning, who is known for spreading wealth. Look for Decker and Thomas to stretch the field while TE’s Joel Dressen and sleeper Jacob Tamme work inside and under. Another great WR sleeper pick to watch out for is Matt Willis, plus let’s not forget Manning also has a history with Brandon Stokley, (now back with Denver) from his days in Indianapolis.

The running game will balance out the Broncos’ offensive options and inevitably make Manning a more efficient quarterback. Rookie running back Ronnie Hillman (HUGE sleeper pick) will back Willis McGahee, but Hilman poses a serious threat at receiving running back and these additional factors will help Manning spread the aforementioned wealth and rack up stud numbers this season.

The predictions say that Manning will go to the last rounds (eighth and ninth) of the fantasy drafts. Most fantasy owners are going to be coy about Manning’s pick. I say Manning is a steal, so take him early (4-6).

Regardless of the season’s outcome, the Broncos feel they made a great choice in acquiring the Denver Broncos and that by bringing in the veteran they will have a great season that could lead to another Super Bowl for Mile High City.